Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 1.026706 1.249762 1.487936 1.759072 2.057167 2.373074 2.731359
2024-10-20 0.686334 0.975814 1.310605 1.717350 2.189889 2.714283 3.333244
2024-10-27 0.591330 0.929327 1.339842 1.857283 2.476233 3.179170 4.024905
2024-11-03 0.509738 0.882585 1.356532 1.973554 2.729975 3.605344 4.674624
2024-11-10 0.449487 0.849850 1.379499 2.087857 2.973554 4.013698 5.299073
2024-11-17 0.400352 0.823355 1.403980 2.199221 3.210510 4.412868 5.912971
2024-11-24 0.338549 0.767818 1.381972 2.244928 3.361865 4.706649 6.400656
2024-12-01 0.275519 0.699397 1.334273 2.250708 3.458434 4.930939 6.803473
2024-12-08 0.205560 0.605671 1.240503 2.186708 3.459761 5.034002 7.056955
2024-12-15 0.149613 0.523045 1.153561 2.124330 3.457102 5.127535 7.295233
2024-12-22 0.110341 0.461395 1.091333 2.090566 3.487243 5.258346 7.576014
2024-12-29 0.090269 0.435047 1.082442 2.131230 3.615347 5.512235 8.008414
2025-01-05 0.065554 0.392155 1.046260 2.136420 3.704196 5.728501 8.411410
2025-01-12 0.042111 0.340663 0.989348 2.107256 3.744820 5.883423 8.740216
2025-01-19 0.040415 0.354217 1.049857 2.258145 4.035611 6.362921 9.477303
2025-01-26 0.037146 0.361319 1.098278 2.390768 4.301925 6.812121 10.178432
2025-02-02 0.033728 0.366557 1.142887 2.517612 4.560741 7.252524 10.869911
2025-02-09 0.030459 0.371043 1.185818 2.642072 4.816892 7.690526 11.559933
2025-02-16 0.022783 0.352919 1.182934 2.692826 4.968348 7.991355 12.076810
2025-02-23 0.014450 0.323249 1.153744 2.699298 5.055486 8.206896 12.485248
2025-03-02 0.005971 0.274885 1.079510 2.628048 5.027974 8.268656 12.696188
2025-03-09 0.001524 0.231903 1.009359 2.558536 4.999316 8.326196 12.899583
2025-03-16 0.000138 0.200933 0.960494 2.520869 5.013902 8.438704 13.170745